Flip the home run question. Which starters are the easiest matchup?
A pitcher-first board that ranks today's starters by how prone they are to allowing home runs, then layers in the opposing lineup's power and the handedness matchup. The complement to the batter-side Home Run Model.
The matchup side of home run value
- Ranked by HR vulnerability: today's starters ordered by how prone they are to allowing home runs, so the softest spots rise to the top.
- Opposing lineup power: a team-level read on how much thump the opposing lineup carries as a group.
- Handedness split context: which side of the plate has the platoon advantage against that day's starter.
- Pairs with the HR Model: use this board to find the matchup, then jump to the batter board to pick the individual hitters inside it.
HR/9, lineup power, and platoon splits
HR/9 (home runs allowed per nine innings) is the headline rate, and it is the fastest way to compare starters who have logged different innings totals. It comes with a caveat: small samples can look extreme, so an early-season pitcher with a handful of starts can post a scary or spotless number that will regress. The board treats HR/9 as a starting flag, not the whole story.
Opposing lineup power is a team-level lens rather than a single hitter. A lineup full of players who hit the ball hard raises the chance that someone goes deep, which is what makes a matchup soft in aggregate. That group view is why a pitcher can be a target even when no single opposing hitter is a household name.
Platoon splits can swing a matchup on their own. Many hitters do real damage against opposite-handed pitching, so a lineup that lines up favorably by handedness against the day's starter can turn a mediocre spot into a strong one. Seeing the handedness alongside the rate keeps you from targeting a pitcher who actually matches up well against the lineup they face.
Pitcher matchups for home runs, explained
What does HR/9 mean for a pitcher?
HR/9 is home runs allowed per nine innings pitched. A rate that lets you compare pitchers who have thrown different numbers of innings. A higher HR/9 means a pitcher has surrendered home runs more frequently, which flags them as a potentially favorable matchup for power.
How do you find the best pitcher matchups for home run props?
Start from the pitcher side: rank starters by how prone they are to allowing home runs, then layer in the opposing lineup's power and the handedness matchup. The board does this ranking for you, so you can spot the softest spots before drilling into individual hitters.
Why do platoon (lefty/righty) splits matter against a specific pitcher?
Many hitters perform noticeably better against opposite-handed pitching, and many pitchers are more vulnerable to one side of the plate. A lineup stacked with hitters who have the platoon advantage against that day's starter can turn a middling matchup into a strong one, which is why handedness is shown alongside the raw rate.
What makes a pitcher homer-prone beyond just HR/9?
HR/9 is a headline rate, but fly-ball tendency, hard contact allowed, pitch mix, and the ballpark they are throwing in all feed into home-run risk. A pitcher with a modest HR/9 in a pitcher-friendly park can be more exposed on the road in a hitter's park, so the matchup lens looks past the single number.
How is a team's power profile measured for matchup purposes?
Power is looked at as a team-level lens. How much thump a lineup carries as a group, rather than one star hitter. A deep lineup of players who hit the ball hard raises the chance that someone goes deep, independent of which individual you ultimately focus on.
Should you target home run value based on the pitcher or the batter first?
They work together. Starting from the pitcher narrows the slate to the softest matchups quickly; from there you can move to the Home Run Model to pick the individual hitters with the best modeled edge inside those matchups. Many people use the pitcher board as the filter and the batter board as the finisher.
See today's pitcher matchup board
Find the softest home-run matchups first. Ranked by vulnerability, lineup power, and handedness. Then finish with the batter board.