What Elite, Strong, Good and Pass actually mean.
Every board on the platform shares one label system for conviction, whether you are reading NFL, NBA or MLB. The tier is not a rating of how good a team is. It measures how far the model's number sits from the market's price, and this page explains how to read it.
One label for the gap between model and market
Each pick starts as the model's own number for an outcome. We compare that number to the market's fair price for the same thing. The size of the gap between them is what the tier describes. A bigger gap earns a higher tier. It is a measure of conviction and relative value, not a prediction of what will happen in any one game.
The model's number sits far from the market's. These are the widest gaps on the board, and they carry the most conviction.
A clear, sizeable gap separates the model from the market. Conviction is high, one notch below Elite.
The gap is solid and worth a look. The model leans one way by a real margin, without the difference being extreme.
The gap is modest. The model still leans one way, but the difference is small enough that the read should be held lightly.
The model and the market are too close to separate, so the board offers no lean. We show it as a deliberate 'nothing here' rather than forcing a pick.
Sort by conviction, not by noise
The point of a tier is to let you scan a full slate and go straight to where the model has the most to say. Instead of eyeballing a column of percentages and guessing which gaps are meaningful, you can sort by tier and read the board from the top down.
A higher tier reflects a wider gap between the model and the market, and that is all it claims. Every sport carries variance, so a Moderate pick can win and an Elite one can lose on any given night. The tier describes the quality of the disagreement with the price across many spots, not a guarantee on a single game.
And when nothing stands out, the board says Pass on purpose. Forcing a lean on every game would bury the handful of spots that actually matter. A clean "no strong opinion here" is a feature, not a gap in coverage.
The same tiers across every tool
Elite, Strong, Good, Moderate, and Pass mean the same thing whether you are reading NFL projections, the NFL touchdown board, NBA player props, MLB game projections, or NRFI / YRFI. The underlying stat changes from tool to tool, from receiving yards to a rebound line to a run total, but the label always answers the same question: how far is the model from the market?
Confidence tiers, answered
What do confidence tiers like Elite, Strong, Good, and Moderate mean?
They are plain-language labels for how much the model's number differs from the market's fair price on a given pick. A higher tier reflects a wider gap between the two, so a board can be sorted by conviction rather than by raw percentages alone.
Why would a model 'pass' on a game instead of giving a lean?
When the model's number sits too close to the market to favor either side, the board shows Pass. It is a deliberate 'no strong opinion here' signal. Surfacing only the spots with a meaningful gap is more useful than forcing a lean on every game.
Are all the tools on the site tiered the same way?
Yes. Elite, Strong, Good, Moderate, and Pass are a shared vocabulary across every sport we cover, from NFL projections and touchdown props to NBA player props and MLB game lines. The exact stat behind each tool differs, but the tier label always means the same thing: how far the model is from the market.
Does a higher tier mean a bigger edge?
In general, yes. A higher tier reflects a larger gap between the model's estimate and the market's fair price. It is a measure of relative conviction and value, though, not a promise about any single result; a lower-tier pick can win and a top-tier one can lose.
Does a higher tier guarantee a win?
No. Tiers describe how confident the model is that a price is mispriced, not what will happen in one game. Every sport carries variance, so even the strongest lean is an estimate of an edge over the long run, never a sure thing.
Sort today's board by conviction
Every pick on every tool comes with a tier, so you can go straight to the spots where the model has the most to say versus the market.