Every batter's modeled chance to go deep today.
A daily home-run board that puts each hitter's modeled probability right next to the market price (so you can see the edge) plus a same-game parlay builder to combine your favorite legs.
Model probability, market price, and the gap between them
- Model% vs. book price: each batter's modeled chance to homer, next to the sportsbook's number, with the edge called out.
- Tap-a-row profile: open any hitter to see the favorable-conditions checklist behind the number, described in plain categories.
- Same-game parlay builder: combine legs from the board and see the blended price before you commit.
- Confidence tiers: an Elite / Strong / Good / Moderate label so the board is sortable by conviction, not just raw percentage.
The row profile is built from categories, not a formula you have to reverse-engineer: batted-ball quality, the batter-versus-pitcher matchup, park, and weather. We show which conditions favor a hitter. Not secret thresholds or weights.
Barrel rate, ISO, xSLG. In plain English
Barrel rate and hard-hit rate are the starting point. A "barrel" is contact hit at the exit velocity and launch angle that historically produces extra-base damage; barrel rate is how often a hitter does that, and hard-hit rate is how often they reach a high exit velocity. Hitters who barrel the ball a lot give themselves more chances to clear the fence, regardless of a given night's result.
Isolated power (ISO) strips singles out of slugging to measure raw extra-base ability, and expected slugging (xSLG) estimates what a hitter's contact quality "should" produce based on how the ball comes off the bat. Together they separate genuine power from batting average, which is why a modest-average slugger can still be a strong home-run candidate.
Then the environment matters. Park dimensions and altitude change how far a fly ball travels, and weather (temperature and wind direction) nudges carry up or down. A ball that dies on the warning track in a cool, still park can leave the yard in warm air with the wind blowing out. The model folds all of that into each batter's number, then compares it to the market to surface value.
Home run props, explained
How does a home run prediction model work in general terms?
In broad terms, a home run model estimates each batter's chance of going deep by combining how hard and how often they hit the ball, the pitcher and matchup they face, and the conditions of the park and weather. That estimate is then expressed as a probability and compared to the sportsbook's price for the same outcome.
What is 'model percent' vs 'book odds' for a home run prop?
Model percent is our estimated probability that a batter homers today. Book odds are the sportsbook's price for that outcome, which can be converted to an implied probability. Showing both side by side is what lets you see whether the market is pricing a hitter higher or lower than the model does.
What is edge in a home run model?
Edge is the gap between the model's probability and the market's implied probability, after removing the sportsbook's margin. A positive edge means the model thinks a home run is more likely than the posted price suggests. Edge is a measure of relative value, not a guarantee. Any single game can go either way.
What stats matter most for predicting home runs?
Power outcomes lean on batted-ball quality. Barrel rate and hard-hit rate measure how often a hitter squares the ball up at damage-level exit velocity and launch angle. Isolated power (ISO) and expected slugging (xSLG) describe extra-base ability, and the pitcher's home-run tendency, park, and weather round out the picture.
What is a same-game parlay and how does a parlay builder help?
A same-game parlay combines multiple outcomes from one game into a single ticket that pays more but needs every leg to hit. A parlay builder helps you assemble legs from the board and see the combined price, so you can weigh the added payout against the added risk rather than eyeballing it.
Do wind and temperature really affect home run chances?
Yes. Warmer air is less dense and lets a ball carry farther, and wind blowing out toward the fences helps fly balls clear them while wind blowing in knocks them down. The model accounts for park dimensions and game-time weather so those effects are already baked into each batter's number.
Why do model home run percentages sometimes disagree with the sportsbook?
Sportsbook prices reflect market demand and liability management as well as the underlying odds, while the model is an independent estimate from the inputs above. When the two disagree, that gap is exactly what the board is built to surface. It does not mean either side is certainly right.
Unlock today's HR board
See every batter's modeled chance to homer, the edge vs. the market, and build a same-game parlay from the board.