Every starter, projected across five prop markets.
Strikeouts, outs recorded, earned runs, hits allowed, and walks. A full projection for every probable starter, each shown next to the posted line with a lean and a confidence tier.
A complete profile for every probable pitcher
- Five markets per starter: strikeouts, outs, earned runs, hits allowed, and walks, each with its own projected number.
- Projection vs. the line: the model number sits right next to the posted book line, with an over/under lean and a confidence tier.
- Matchup context in plain language: a note on whether the opposing lineup tends to strike out more or less than average, without any hidden numbers to decode.
- Final once lineups are confirmed: projections refresh through the day and settle when the day's lineups are set.
Reading a pitcher prop the right way
A strikeout projection is about volume and rate together. Rate is how often a pitcher misses bats; volume is how many hitters they are likely to face, which depends on expected innings, pitch efficiency, and bullpen plans. A high-strikeout arm on a short leash can still land under a generous line, which is why the board weighs both sides rather than a single rate.
Recent form and season rate answer different questions. A season average is a large, stable sample; recent form reflects how a pitcher is throwing right now. Velocity, health, and pitch-mix tweaks that a full-year number can lag. The projection blends the two so a genuine hot or cold stretch shows up without overreacting to a single outing.
Finally, the opposing lineup matters as much as the pitcher's own stuff. Two starts with identical stuff can project very differently against a whiff-prone lineup versus a contact-heavy one. The board frames that matchup qualitatively, then compares the resulting projection to the market to surface where the gap (the edge) sits.
Pitcher strikeout props, explained
What factors affect a pitcher's strikeout total in a given start?
A starter's strikeout total is shaped by how many hitters they face (a function of expected innings and efficiency), the swing-and-miss quality of their pitch mix, and the opposing lineup's tendency to strike out. Workload limits, weather, and bullpen plans can also cap or extend an outing, which is why the projection considers volume as well as rate.
What is a strikeout prop?
A pitcher strikeout prop is a market offered by sportsbooks on how many strikeouts a starter will record, usually posted as a number with an over and an under. Our model publishes its own projected strikeout number so you can compare it to that posted line.
How do sportsbooks set pitcher strikeout lines?
Books blend a pitcher's recent and season strikeout rate with the matchup and expected workload, then shade the line for market demand and their margin (the vig). Because the posted number already carries that margin, the useful comparison is our independent projection against their line, not the line on its own.
What pitcher prop markets are covered besides strikeouts?
The board projects five starter markets: strikeouts, outs recorded, earned runs, hits allowed, and walks. Each market gets its own projection, a lean versus the posted line, and a confidence tier, so you can read a full pitcher profile rather than a single number.
Why do strikeout projections change closer to game time?
Projections refresh as new information arrives. Confirmed lineups, late scratches, weather updates, and moving market lines. A projection is treated as final once the day's lineups are confirmed, and until then it can shift with the matchup.
What is the difference between a pitcher's season K rate and recent form?
Season rate captures a large sample, while recent form reflects how a pitcher is throwing right now. Health, velocity, and pitch-mix changes that a full-season average can lag. The model weighs both so a hot or cold stretch is reflected without overreacting to one start.
How does the opposing lineup affect a strikeout prop?
A lineup that strikes out more than average raises a starter's strikeout ceiling, while a contact-oriented lineup suppresses it. The board describes this matchup context in plain terms so you can see why the same pitcher projects differently from one opponent to the next.
See today's full pitcher board
Every probable starter projected across all five markets. Strikeouts, outs, earned runs, hits, and walks. Updated through the day.