The model's number for every player prop.
Weekly projections for the passing, rushing, and receiving markets, built from the matchup before the book posts a line. When the market number lands, each projection turns into an over or under lean and a confidence tier.
The projection, then the lean it produces
- The projected number: the model's own figure for a player's stat in a game, built from the matchup rather than lifted from the book.
- The lean against the line: once the market posts, an over or under falls out of comparing the projection to the number.
- A confidence tier: the size of the gap between projection and line becomes an Elite, Strong, Good, or Moderate label.
- Position groups covered: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, across the passing, rushing, and receiving markets books put up.
This page is about the numbers. If you would rather browse the whole slate of prices with the leans attached, the props board is the screen for that.
How a number becomes a value read
A projection comes first, and it is independent of the market. The model builds a number for a player's stat, a passing yards total, a reception count, a rushing figure, from the inputs that drive it: the quarterback and how often the team throws, the expected game script, the pace, the matchup against the coverage or the front, and weather for outdoor games. It is described here at a high level, the same way the methodology page frames the rest of the site.
The lean only exists once there is a line to compare against. When the book posts a number, the projection is measured against it. Sit clearly above and the read is an over, sit below and it is an under, and the further apart the two are, the higher the confidence tier. A projection close to the line is a pass, not a forced pick.
Football is a weekly sport, and the projections move with it. They are built and refreshed across the week as roles firm up and injury news settles, so a number reflects who is actually going to be on the field on Sunday rather than a stale season average. Every read is surfaced for informational and entertainment use, and no projection is a guarantee.
NFL prop projections, explained
What is an NFL prop projection?
A prop projection is the model's own number for a player's stat in a game, a projected passing yards total or reception count, for example, built before the market is even set. It is an estimate of a likely outcome from the underlying inputs, not a copy of the sportsbook's line.
How does a projection become a lean against the posted line?
Once the market posts a number, the model's projection is compared to it. If the projection sits clearly above the line the lean is an over, if it sits below the lean is an under, and the size of that gap sets the confidence tier. The projection is the starting point, and the lean is what falls out of comparing it to the price.
Which NFL positions and markets do the projections cover?
The projections span the skill positions that carry prop markets: quarterbacks for passing yards, touchdowns, and attempts, running backs for rushing and receiving work, and wide receivers and tight ends for catches and yards. Coverage tracks the markets the books put up each week.
How is a passing yards projection built?
In plain terms, a passing yards projection considers the quarterback and how often the team throws, the expected game script, the pace of the game, and the strength of the coverage on the other side, plus weather for outdoor games. It is described here at a high level, and the result is a single projected number the market gets measured against.
Do the prop projections adjust for injuries and role changes?
Yes. A player's projection moves when the depth chart moves. If a starter is out and a backup steps into the workload, or a receiver's target share climbs, the projected number follows the new role rather than the season-long average. That is refreshed across the week as the news settles.
When do the NFL prop projections launch?
The prop projections are built and being readied for the 2026 season, targeting a September launch with the rest of the NFL model. This page previews the numbers, and the live projections appear as the season opens.
Get the number, then the lean
NFL prop projections arrive with the 2026 season. Start with the live MLB boards now, and the weekly player numbers will be waiting inside your account at kickoff.