The NFL model, from game line to player prop.
Weekly game projections with win probability, a spread lean, a total lean, and a projected score range for every matchup, each next to the market price. Plus a touchdown board and player prop numbers, all under one NFL hub.
Win probability, spread and total leans, and a score range
- Win probability per side: each team's modeled chance to win the game, shown next to the market's moneyline price.
- Spread and total leans: which side of the spread and the over/under the model favors, each placed against the posted number.
- Projected score range: the range of final scores the model expects, so a projected blowout reads differently than a projected one-score game.
- Confidence tiers: an Elite, Strong, Good, or Moderate label on every lean, the same taxonomy used across every board on the site.
- A weekly cadence: numbers are built and refreshed across the week and firm up as kickoff approaches, so you know when a card has settled.
The board never names a "lock." It shows the model's number, the market's number, and the edge between them. What you do with that gap is up to you.
Four boards, one hub
The game projections are the center of the NFL model. Around them sit three more boards, each with its own preview page below.
Anytime and multi-touchdown scorers ranked by role and usage, from goal-line carries to red-zone target share.
Preview →NFL Player Props BoardSoonThe day's passing, rushing, and receiving props on one screen, each line sitting next to the model's read.
Preview →NFL Prop ProjectionsSoonThe player numbers themselves, turned into an over or under lean against the posted line each week.
Preview →A new sport, the same discipline
Football is a different modeling problem than baseball. Game script, role, and injuries move an NFL projection far more than a batting order moves a baseball one. But the way the model thinks carries straight over: an independent projection built from category-level inputs, compared to the market price to surface where the value sits.
The build accounts for the things that actually drive football outcomes. The quarterback, expected pace and game script, the matchups on both sides of the ball, and weather for outdoor games. Described here at a high level, the same way our methodology page frames the MLB model. Every lean carries a confidence tier, read exactly the way it is on the baseball boards.
And the same honesty rule applies: the NFL boards are marketed on what they do and how they reason, not on a record they have not earned yet. Track-record claims come only after the results are validated.
NFL projections, answered
When do the NFL projections launch?
The NFL model is fully built and being readied for the 2026 season, targeting a September launch to line up with the regular season. This page is the preview. The live boards appear on the site as the season opens.
What do the NFL game projections show?
For every game on the week's slate, the model shows a win probability for each side, a spread lean and a total lean, and a projected score range, each placed next to the market price so the gap is easy to read.
How is NFL win probability different from the moneyline price?
Win probability is the model's independent estimate of each team's chance to win, and in a two-way game the two sides add up to one hundred percent. A sportsbook's moneyline prices add up to more than that once the margin is included, which is why the model number and the posted price can disagree.
How often do the NFL projections update during the week?
Football runs on a weekly rhythm, so the projections are built and refreshed across the week as injury news, roles, and market prices settle. A game's numbers firm up as kickoff approaches rather than changing by the minute the way a daily baseball board does.
What other NFL boards come with the model?
Alongside the game projections, the NFL model includes a touchdown board that ranks scorers by role, a player props board that lines up model context next to the day's prices, and player prop projections for the passing, rushing, and receiving markets. Each has its own preview page in the toolkit above.
Is the NFL model built the same way as the MLB boards?
The sports differ, and game script, roles, and injuries drive football far more than a batting order moves a baseball game. The discipline carries over, though: an independent projection built from category-level inputs, compared to the market price, with a confidence tier on every lean.
Be ready for kickoff
Start with the live MLB boards today, and you'll be set the moment the NFL projections go live for the 2026 season.