How Our NFL Season Projections Work

Two bases: 17-Game Pace and Injury-Adjusted Totals

pace17 = per-17-game pace (comparable to public sites). totals = injury-adjusted (games prior baked in: QB/WR/TE ~15, RB ~14.3). Headline basis: pace17. The headline basis across our tables is 17-Game Pace; the real projected games count for each player lives alongside it as a separate column.

Who counts as "qualified"?

Ranked boards include players projected for at least 8 games. Backups and contingency options keep full projections and remain searchable, but are not ranked — a per-17-game pace is not a meaningful ranking for a player projected to play two games.

Badges: Rookie and New Team

A ROOKIE badge marks a player in their first NFL season. A NEW TEAM badge marks a player who changed teams this offseason, where a role or usage change is more likely than for a player staying in the same offense. We don't show a consensus or market-comparison column on these boards — they're our model's numbers only.

How the What-If projector scales a projection

The What-If projector lets you adjust a player's games played (8–17) and, where relevant, their share of pass attempts, rush attempts, or targets (70%–130% of our baseline). Games scale every stat linearly. Usage scales its own stat family linearly too — except receiving, where receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns scale by the usage factor raised to the 1.5 power, since more targets compound into more catches and more big plays, not just a 1-for-1 stat bump. PPR points are then recomputed from the scaled stats:

PPR = passYds × 0.04 + passTd × 4 − int × 2
    + rushYds × 0.1 + rushTd × 6
    + rec × 1 + recYds × 0.1 + recTd × 6

The sliders only appear for a stat family once a player clears a minimum baseline volume (50+ pass attempts, 10+ carries, or 10+ targets on our projection) — below that, the family isn't part of their profile and a slider for it wouldn't mean anything.

Data freshness

The feed refreshes automatically every day around 5:45am ET. If a page is showing data more than 48 hours old, we show a banner rather than silently serving stale numbers.