How many points, projected.
The marquee NBA board. Every scorer's points prop projected and set against the market line, built from the two things that decide a scoring night: the minutes a player sees, and how efficiently they use them.
A projected points number for every scorer
- Points projection vs. line: each player's modeled scoring number sits next to the market line, with the side the model leans called out.
- Minutes read: the projected floor time behind a number, since a scorer who plays starter minutes and one on a restriction are not the same bet.
- Role and matchup context: usage in the offense and the defender across from a player, the two things that move a scoring line most.
- Confidence tiers: an Elite, Strong, Good, or Moderate label on every lean, so the board is sortable by conviction rather than raw projection.
The board never calls a "lock." It shows the model's points number, the market's line, and the edge between them. What you do with that gap is up to you.
Minutes times efficiency, in plain English
A scoring night comes down to two levers. The first is minutes, the raw opportunity. A player cannot score from the bench, so the projected time on the floor sets the ceiling on everything else. Foul trouble, a minutes restriction coming off an injury, or a coach who leans on a short rotation all pull that opportunity up or down before efficiency even enters.
The second is efficiency, how much a player does with the possessions they get. That is where usage and matchup live. A high-usage star finishes a large share of the team's trips, so more of the offense runs through them, and the defender and scheme across from them decide how cleanly those looks come. A tough individual matchup or a defense built to wall off the paint trims the same player's scoring more than a soft one would.
Multiply the opportunity by the efficiency, adjust for the pace of the game and the role a player holds that night, and you have a points projection. Set it against the market line, and the gap is what the board is built to surface. It is described here in words, not as a formula or a set of weights, the same way our methodology page frames every model on the site.
NBA points props, explained
What is a player points prop?
A points prop sets a line for how many points a player will score, and the market prices the over and the under. The model projects a points figure for that player and compares it to the line, so you can see which side it leans and how firmly.
Why do minutes and pace matter so much for points?
Points are opportunity times efficiency, and minutes are the opportunity. A player who sits with foul trouble or in a blowout gets fewer chances to score no matter how well they shoot. Pace sets how many possessions a game produces, so a fast game hands both teams more trips down the floor, and more trips means more scoring chances than a grind-it-out night.
What is usage rate in plain terms?
Usage rate is the share of a team's possessions a player finishes while on the floor, whether by shooting, drawing a foul, or turning it over. A high-usage player is the one the offense runs through, so they carry more of the scoring load and their points number tends to be both higher and steadier than a low-usage teammate's.
How does blowout risk affect a points projection?
When a game gets lopsided, coaches rest their starters late, which caps the minutes a star would otherwise play. A projection has to weigh that: a heavy favorite's best scorer might be pulled with the game already decided, trimming the realistic ceiling on a points line even when the shooting is on.
How are player points projected, in general terms?
In broad strokes the model estimates the minutes a player is likely to see and the rate they score within those minutes, shaped by the matchup across from them, the pace of the game, and their role in the offense. That estimate becomes a points number, which is then compared to the market line to surface a lean.
Be first on the points board
The NBA points model returns for 2026-27. Start with the live boards now, and it will be waiting the moment the season tips off.