Every touchdown-pick data point, DVP matchup, and model-pick info you could ever ask for in a single betting primer article!

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons — Madrid — 9:30 AM ET

Market: Bengals -3 | Total 52.5
Approx. implied points: CIN 27.75 | ATL 24.75

TD Matchup Data

Atlanta defense: 1.0 RB rushing TD/game (T-8th-most) | only 0.5 WR TD/game (T-2nd-fewest) | 0.5 TE TD/game (17th of 32).
Cincinnati defense: 0.7 RB rushing TD/game | 1.1 WR TD/game — T-8th-most | 0.0 TE TD/game — fewest in NFL.
The positional data points Cincinnati more toward Chase Brown on the ground than toward blindly chasing a WR TD. Atlanta has been much more generous to RB touchdowns than WR touchdowns.
Atlanta gets the opposite positional setup. Cincinnati has been difficult against RB and TE TDs but considerably more vulnerable to opposing wide receivers.
That makes Drake London the cleanest matchup-specific Atlanta scorer.
Kyle Pitts has been heavily involved around the red zone recently, but Cincinnati's 0.0 TE TD/game is about as difficult a scoring matchup as possible. Pitts had six red-zone targets over the four games entering Week 9.
Chase Brown continues to carry strong volume, averaging 18.5 touches with a 71.4% snap rate entering this matchup.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Chase Brown: 48.4% probability | Fair +107 | Book -155 | -12.4% edge
Bijan Robinson: 45.2% | Fair +121 | Book -240 | -25.4% edge
Ja'Marr Chase: 43.0% | Fair +132 | Book -105 | -8.2% edge
Bijan is the biggest pricing warning in the entire supplied model. A 45.2% model probability is strong, but -240 is nowhere close to the model's +121 fair price.
Chase Brown has the best positional TD matchup of the model-listed players here, but -155 has already priced in a huge amount of that scoring expectation.
Ja'Marr remains an elite scorer candidate, but Atlanta allowing just 0.5 WR TD/game and the model's negative edge both argue against paying a premium.

TD Targets: Chase Brown | Drake London | Ja'Marr Chase
Elite Player / Major Price Warning: Bijan Robinson
Best Matchup Direction: Cincinnati RB | Atlanta WR
TD Read: Excellent overall scoring environment, but terrible obvious-player prices. The 52.5 total is attractive, yet the MySpariEdge model says Brown, Chase and especially Bijan are all overpriced at the supplied odds.

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Broncos -2.5 | Total 43.5
Approx. implied points: DEN 23.0 | CAR 20.5

TD Matchup Data

Carolina defense: 1.4 RB rushing TDs/game — 2nd-most NFL | only 0.6 WR TD/game — T-5th-fewest | 0.7 TE TD/game — T-8th-most.
Denver defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game — T-9th-fewest | 0.5 WR TD/game — T-2nd-fewest | 0.6 TE TD/game.
This is one of Week 9's clearest RB-over-WR scoring funnels.
Jonah Coleman has the matchup. Carolina is allowing the second-most RB rushing touchdowns per game.
Coleman's role has also expanded: he reached a 67.9% snap rate, 47.8% rushing share and 50% route share last week while producing 104 total yards.
Denver's WRs face almost the exact opposite environment. Carolina has allowed only 0.6 WR TD/game.
Evan Engram has the better positional passing matchup, with Carolina giving up 0.7 TE TD/game.
Chuba Hubbard remains an excellent role-based scorer, but Denver has allowed only 0.6 RB rushing TD/game and only 0.5 WR TD/game, making the Panthers offense a more difficult TD target.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Chuba Hubbard: 48.6% | Fair +106 | Book -111 | -4.0% edge
Jonah Coleman: 44.3% | Fair +126 | Book +110 | -3.3% edge
Coleman gets the vastly superior DvP matchup, although +110 is still slightly shorter than the model's +126 fair price.
Chuba's raw probability is actually higher, but the opponent TD data and the -111 book price both work against him.

TD Targets: Jonah Coleman | Evan Engram | Chuba Hubbard
Best Matchup Direction: Denver RBs
Price Caution: Chuba Hubbard | Jonah Coleman
TD Read: Carolina allowing 1.4 RB rushing TDs/game, second-most in football, is the defining stat. Coleman has the clearest matchup-based TD profile.

Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Cowboys -6 | Total 51.5
Approx. implied points: DAL 28.75 | IND 22.75

TD Matchup Data

Indianapolis defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game — T-12th-most | 0.8 WR TD/game | 0.8 TE TD/game — T-6th-most.
Dallas defense: 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-8th-most | 1.0 WR TD/game | 0.5 TE TD/game.
Dallas carries one of Week 9's highest implied team totals, putting Javonte Williams immediately near the top of the TD board.
The matchup isn't a massive RB funnel, but Indianapolis allows enough RB scores to complement Javonte's strong goal-line profile.
Jake Ferguson gets the best pure positional DvP among Dallas pass catchers. Indianapolis' 0.8 TE TD/game ranks among the higher TE scoring rates.
CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens face a more neutral WR-TD matchup at 0.8/game.
Indianapolis gets the cleaner rushing-TD matchup. Dallas allows 1.0 RB rushing TD/game, keeping Jonathan Taylor firmly in play despite the Colts being six-point underdogs.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Javonte Williams: 68.0% | Fair -213 | Book -210 | +0.3% edge
Jonathan Taylor: 57.8% | Fair -137 | Book -135 | +0.4% edge
CeeDee Lamb: 45.4% | Fair +120 | Book -109 | -6.8% edge
Javonte has the second-highest probability among the remaining Week 9 model players, and his sportsbook price is almost exactly fair.
Taylor is another rare high-probability scorer where the model still finds a small positive edge.
CeeDee is the opposite: excellent player and excellent team total, but the model thinks -109 is significantly too short.

TD Targets: Javonte Williams | Jonathan Taylor | Jake Ferguson
Receiving Target: CeeDee Lamb
Best Model Values: Jonathan Taylor +0.4% | Javonte Williams +0.3%
TD Read: One of the best two-sided RB touchdown games on the slate. Javonte and Taylor both combine strong model probabilities with reasonable supplied prices.

New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Chiefs -9.5 | Total 47.5
Approx. implied points: KC 28.5 | NYJ 19.0

TD Matchup Data

New York defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 1.1 WR TD/game — T-8th-most | 0.4 TE TD/game.
Kansas City defense: 0.7 RB rushing TD/game | 0.3 WR TD/game — FEWEST NFL | 0.7 TE TD/game — T-8th-most.
Kansas City's offensive matchup clearly favors WR touchdowns over TE or RB touchdowns relative to the Jets' tendencies.
That puts Rashee Rice on the matchup radar. He returned to his normal role last week with a 19.5% target share and a red-zone target.
Kenneth Walker III still has the strongest raw TD profile because of role + favorite game script + model probability.
Travis Kelce faces only a 0.4 TE TD/game Jets defense, making his matchup less appealing than Rice's.
The Jets have a brutal WR-TD draw. Kansas City allows only 0.3 WR TD/game, the lowest rate in your table.
Mason Taylor actually gets the Jets' best relative positional scoring matchup because Kansas City allows 0.7 TE TD/game.
Breece Hall progressed to a full practice Thursday, while Garrett Wilson remained out of practice in concussion protocol.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Kenneth Walker III: 67.1% | Fair -204 | Book -210 | -0.6% edge
Walker has the third-highest remaining model probability, and -210 is only marginally worse than fair.
There is no need to force Jets TD exposure against a defense allowing the fewest WR TDs in your table.

TD Targets: Kenneth Walker III | Rashee Rice
Jets Longer-Price Target: Mason Taylor
Best Matchup Direction: Kansas City WR
TD Read: Walker is the safest raw scorer profile, but the Jets' 1.1 WR TD/game allowed makes Rice the more interesting positional matchup angle.

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Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Lions -7 | Total 50.5
Approx. implied points: DET 28.75 | MIA 21.75

TD Matchup Data

Miami defense: only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game — T-3rd-fewest | 0.7 WR TD/game | 0.9 TE TD/game — 4th-most.
Detroit defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 0.9 WR TD/game | 1.6 TE TDs/game — MOST NFL.
This game is screaming tight end touchdown matchup.
Sam LaPorta gets Miami's clearest positional TD weakness. LaPorta has nine red-zone targets this season.
Miami TE Greg Dulcich gets an even better matchup: Detroit allows an NFL-high 1.6 TE receiving TDs/game.
Dulcich has also emerged as a major part of Miami's offense recently, with a 20% target share and two red-zone targets over a three-game stretch.
Jahmyr Gibbs is still the most likely scorer in the entire supplied model, but Miami's 0.4 RB TD/game is a genuinely difficult rushing-TD matchup.
Amon-Ra gets a neutral-to-poor 0.7 WR TD/game matchup.
Ollie Gordon draws Detroit's 0.6 RB TD/game defense and an underdog game script, making his path less clean.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Jahmyr Gibbs: 72.4% — highest remaining model probability | Fair -263 | Book -300 | -2.6% edge
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 48.3% | Fair +107 | Book -110 | -4.1% edge
Ollie Gordon II: 47.5% | Fair +111 | Book +105 | -1.3% edge
Sam LaPorta: 38.6% | Fair +159 | Book +195 | +4.7% edge
LaPorta is the standout: positive model value + favorable TE DvP + large Detroit team total.
Gibbs is still the likeliest player to score, but the price is expensive and the RB-specific matchup is poor.

TD Targets: Sam LaPorta | Jahmyr Gibbs | Greg Dulcich
Secondary Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Best Model Value: Sam LaPorta +4.7%
TD Read: TE touchdowns are the story. Both defenses are considerably more vulnerable to TEs than RBs. LaPorta is one of the week's strongest model + matchup combinations.

Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Saints -3 | Total 42.5
Approx. implied points: NO 22.75 | CLE 19.75

TD Matchup Data

New Orleans defense: 1.6 RB rushing TDs/game — MOST NFL | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.6 TE TD/game.
Cleveland defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.5 TE TD/game.
Quinshon Judkins gets the No. 1 RB touchdown matchup in football.
New Orleans is allowing 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game specifically to RBs, substantially more than its WR or TE rates.
Judkins' role decreased last week, but he still handled 73.3% of Cleveland's rushing attempts despite playing only 39.1% of snaps.
Harold Fannin Jr. remains a viable receiving scorer because of his four red-zone targets, but the Saints' TE TD rate is only 0.6/game.
The New Orleans offense faces a much more neutral TD defense. Cleveland doesn't rank among the strongest matchups in any of the three supplied positional categories.
Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller have been splitting the backfield, further reducing confidence in either Saints RB as an anytime scorer.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Quinshon Judkins: 45.4% | Fair +120 | Book +110 | -2.2% edge
The model likes his raw probability, but +110 is slightly short of its fair number.
The DvP is much stronger than the model value: this is primarily a matchup play, not a price-edge play.

TD Targets: Quinshon Judkins | Harold Fannin Jr.
Saints Targets: Chris Olave | Kendre Miller
Best Matchup Direction: Cleveland RB
TD Read: Judkins gets arguably the cleanest RB TD matchup of Week 9. New Orleans ranks No. 1 in RB rushing touchdowns allowed at 1.6/game.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Giants -3.5 | Total 39.5
Approx. implied points: NYG 21.5 | PHI 18.0

TD Matchup Data

Philadelphia defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 1.3 WR TDs/game — T-5th-most | only 0.3 TE TD/game.
New York defense: only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game | 1.3 WR TDs/game — T-5th-most | only 0.3 TE TD/game.
This matchup has one of the week's clearest WR-over-RB/TE TD funnels on BOTH sides.
Malik Nabers gets a Philadelphia defense allowing 1.3 WR touchdowns per game.
Philadelphia's pass catchers get exactly the same number against New York.
Makai Lemon has become increasingly relevant, posting 124 receiving yards and a touchdown across Weeks 7-8.
DeVonta Smith's hamstring injury remains important to Philadelphia's target distribution; he opened the week without practicing.
Saquon Barkley draws a very poor RB-TD matchup: New York allows only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game.
Cam Skattebo also faces a less attractive 0.8 rushing TD/game defense and has been dealing with a hamstring issue.
Both defenses allow just 0.3 TE TD/game, making Isaiah Likely and Dallas Goedert significantly less attractive as TD-specific bets.

MySpariEdge TD Model

No player from this Sunday matchup appears in the supplied Week 9 model screenshots, so I'm not assigning a model percentage that wasn't provided.

TD Targets: Malik Nabers | Makai Lemon
Conditional Target: DeVonta Smith if healthy/active
Avoid Paying a Premium: Saquon Barkley | Giants/Eagles TEs
TD Read: Attack WR touchdowns. Both defenses allow 1.3 WR TDs/game while strongly suppressing RB and TE touchdowns.

Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders — 1:00 PM ET

Market: Rams -5.5 | Total 47.5
Approx. implied points: LAR 26.5 | WAS 21.0

TD Matchup Data

Washington defense: 0.7 RB rushing TD/game | 1.0 WR TD/game | 1.1 TE TDs/game — 2nd-most NFL.
Rams defense: 0.3 RB rushing TD/game — tied for fewest | 1.0 WR TD/game | only 0.1 TE TD/game — T-3rd-fewest.
Tyler Higbee is the positional matchup that immediately jumps out.
Washington allows 1.1 TE TDs/game, second-most in your table.
Puka Nacua gets a neutral 1.0 WR TD/game matchup, while Kyren Williams gets a relatively difficult 0.7 RB scoring matchup.
Even with that DvP, Kyren remains highly attractive because of his 58.2% model scoring probability and Rams favorite game script.
Washington's scoring options draw much harder positional matchups.
Rams opponents are scoring only 0.3 RB TDs/game and 0.1 TE TD/game, strongly downgrading Washington's RB and TE touchdown markets.
Stefon Diggs is the cleaner Commanders path because the Rams' 1.0 WR TD/game is their least restrictive category.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Kyren Williams: 58.2% | Fair -139 | Book -141 | -0.3% edge
Puka Nacua: 48.9% | Fair +105 | Book -120 | -5.6% edge
Kyren is almost perfectly priced by the model.
Puka is nearly a coin-flip scorer according to the model, but -120 is much shorter than +105 fair.

TD Targets: Kyren Williams | Tyler Higbee | Puka Nacua
Washington Target: Stefon Diggs
Best Matchup-Specific Target: Tyler Higbee
TD Read: The Rams have multiple TD paths, but Washington's 1.1 TE TD/game makes Higbee the hidden matchup angle. Kyren remains the safest overall Rams scorer.

Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers — 4:05 PM ET

Market: Texans -4.5 | Total 40.5
Approx. implied points: HOU 22.5 | LAC 18.0

TD Matchup Data

Chargers defense: 1.1 RB rushing TDs/game — 4th-most NFL | 0.9 WR TD/game | only 0.1 TE TD/game — T-3rd-fewest.
Houston defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game | 0.9 WR TD/game | only 0.1 TE TD/game — T-3rd-fewest.
Woody Marks is one of the best pure DvP RB touchdown targets of Week 9.
The Chargers allow the fourth-most RB rushing TDs per game.
Marks has also taken over Houston's backfield, averaging 18.5 touches with 83.2% of snaps and 68% of the rushing work over his first two games as the starter.
David Montgomery is listed out, further consolidating the Houston backfield.
Nico Collins gets a neutral 0.9 WR TD/game matchup.
Both defenses have been extremely difficult against TE scores, at only 0.1 TE TD/game, so Dalton Schultz and Oronde Gadsden are poor matchup-specific touchdown targets.
Chargers RBs get a decent but less favorable 0.9 rushing TD/game matchup against Houston.

MySpariEdge TD Model

No player from this matchup appears in the supplied Week 9 model screenshots.

TD Targets: Woody Marks | Nico Collins
Chargers Target: Ladd McConkey
Best Matchup Direction: Houston RB
TD Read: Woody Marks is the clear DvP play. Volume is consolidated and the Chargers rank fourth-most in RB rushing TDs allowed.

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots — 4:25 PM ET

Market: Patriots -3 | Total 46.5
Approx. implied points: NE 24.75 | GB 21.75

TD Matchup Data

New England defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 1.1 WR TDs/game — T-8th-most | 0.3 TE TD/game.
Green Bay defense: 1.3 RB rushing TDs/game — 3rd-most NFL | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.3 TE TD/game.
This is another highly directional matchup.
Green Bay's best receiving TD path is clearly WR, not TE. Christian Watson and Matthew Golden face a Patriots defense allowing 1.1 WR scores/game.
Tucker Kraft's role remains excellent — eight red-zone targets since Week 4 — but New England allows only 0.3 TE TD/game.
Josh Jacobs has a strong TD model profile, but New England allows only 0.6 RB TD/game, creating a meaningful matchup hurdle.
New England gets the opposite setup: Green Bay gives up 1.3 RB rushing TDs/game, third-most in football.
That puts Rhamondre Stevenson on the short list of the week's best pure DvP TD targets.
Stevenson remains New England's workhorse, averaging 14.9 touches and 72.4 total yards entering Week 9.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Josh Jacobs: 56.5% | Fair -130 | Book -120 | +2.0% edge
Jacobs is interesting because the model still sees positive price value despite a poor opponent RB-TD matchup.
The more favorable DvP player is Stevenson; the more favorable model-price player is Jacobs.

TD Targets: Rhamondre Stevenson | Josh Jacobs | Christian Watson | Matthew Golden
Best Model Value: Josh Jacobs +2.0%
Best Pure DvP: Rhamondre Stevenson vs. GB
TD Read: Target Patriots RB TDs and Packers WR TDs. This is a perfect example of how the positional table can tell us which offensive role to favor.

Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers — 4:25 PM ET

Market: 49ers -10 | Total 52.5
Approx. implied points: SF 31.25 | LV 21.25

TD Matchup Data

Las Vegas defense: 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-8th-most | 1.3 WR TDs/game — T-5th-most | 1.0 TE TD/game — 3rd-most.
San Francisco defense: 0.3 RB rushing TD/game — tied for fewest | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.3 TE TD/game.
San Francisco can attack Las Vegas from almost anywhere.
Christian McCaffrey gets a top-eight RB TD matchup.
George Kittle gets the third-best TE touchdown matchup in your table.
The 49ers WR room gets a Vegas defense allowing 1.3 WR TDs/game, tied for fifth-most.
The biggest question is health. McCaffrey was limited Thursday with a hamstring issue after sitting Wednesday, while several 49ers receivers were also on the report.
Las Vegas gets the polar opposite rushing environment.
San Francisco allows only 0.3 RB rushing TD/game, tied for the fewest in football.
That creates a fascinating conflict with Ashton Jeanty's massive positive model edge.
Jeanty's role also changed dramatically last week: only two rushes and a 36.7% snap share after averaging 20 touches across Weeks 1-7.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Christian McCaffrey: 64.6% | Fair -183 | Book -275 | -8.7% edge
Ashton Jeanty: 49.0% | Fair +104 | Book +160 | +10.5% edge
George Kittle: 42.0% | Fair +138 | Book -103 | -8.7% edge
Jeanty has one of the model's largest positive edges despite one of the worst RB TD matchups imaginable.
CMC and Kittle have excellent DvP situations, but both screenshot prices are substantially too short according to the model.

TD Targets: Christian McCaffrey | George Kittle | 49ers WRs
Contrarian Model Value: Ashton Jeanty +10.5%
Price Warnings: CMC | George Kittle
TD Read: San Francisco is the matchup attack; Jeanty is the price attack. Vegas is vulnerable at RB, WR and TE, while the 49ers suppress RB touchdowns better than almost anyone.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks — 4:25 PM ET

Market: Seahawks -12.5 | Total 41.5
Approx. implied points: SEA 27.0 | ARI 14.5

TD Matchup Data

Arizona defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 1.4 WR TDs/game — 2nd-most NFL | 0.6 TE TD/game.
Seattle defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game | only 0.6 WR TD/game — T-5th-fewest | only 0.3 TE TD/game.
The matchup screams Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Arizona allows 1.4 WR touchdowns per game, second-most in the league.
The problem is quarterback context: Sam Darnold is sidelined, so Drew Lock is expected to start. Lock did throw three TDs in his previous start against Arizona this season.
AJ Barner gets only a neutral 0.6 TE TD/game matchup.
Arizona's offensive TD environment is ugly: only 14.5 implied points against a defense suppressing both WR and TE touchdowns.
Yet the MySpariEdge model sees huge price value on Michael Wilson and Trey McBride.
Wilson has also been managing a rib injury and opened the week limited.

MySpariEdge TD Model

Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 45.7% | Fair +119 | Book -124 | -9.7% edge
Michael Wilson: 44.5% | Fair +125 | Book +335 | +21.5% edge
Trey McBride: 44.3% | Fair +126 | Book +235 | +14.4% edge
Michael Wilson has the largest positive model edge in the supplied Week 9 screenshots.
McBride is second among the biggest positive edges.
Both are perfect examples of value coming from price rather than matchup: Seattle is actually good at suppressing their positions.
JSN gets the elite positional matchup but the model says -124 is wildly expensive relative to +119 fair.

TD Targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Michael Wilson | Trey McBride
Best Model Value: Michael Wilson +21.5% | Trey McBride +14.4%
Big Price Warning: JSN -9.7%
TD Read: One of the slate's most fascinating games: Seattle owns the matchup; Arizona owns the model value. JSN is the intuitive play, while Wilson/McBride are the price-driven plays.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears — 8:20 PM ET

Market: Bears -6 | Total 47.5
Approx. implied points: CHI 26.75 | TB 20.75

TD Matchup Data

Chicago defense: only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game — T-3rd-fewest | 1.0 WR TD/game | 0.4 TE TD/game.
Tampa Bay defense: only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game — T-3rd-fewest | 0.6 WR TD/game — T-5th-fewest | 0.6 TE TD/game.
Both model-listed RBs have strong scoring probabilities, but both face elite rushing-TD defenses.
D'Andre Swift's 64.2% model score is therefore driven more by role and Chicago's scoring expectation than by opponent DvP.
Bucky Irving gets exactly the same 0.4 RB TD/game defensive rate.
Tampa's relative vulnerability is at TE rather than RB or WR, making Colston Loveland an interesting non-model TD angle.
Chicago's relative defensive weakness is WR at 1.0 TD/game, making Tampa's receivers more appealing than Bucky strictly from DvP.
Tampa has leaned heavily into the run recently, although Kenneth Gainwell has also handled substantial volume, complicating the RB scoring distribution.

MySpariEdge TD Model

D'Andre Swift: 64.2% | Fair -179 | Book -195 | -1.9% edge
Bucky Irving: 47.5% | Fair +110 | Book +105 | -1.3% edge
Both are close enough to fair to remain strong scorer candidates, but neither qualifies as positive model value.

TD Targets: D'Andre Swift | Bucky Irving | Colston Loveland
Receiving Pivot: Luther Burden
TD Read: Role says RB; matchup says look elsewhere. Both defenses rank among the toughest teams in football for RB rushing touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings — Monday 8:15 PM ET

Market: Bills -3.5 | Total 45.5
Approx. implied points: BUF 24.5 | MIN 21.0

TD Matchup Data

Buffalo defense: 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-8th-most | 1.6 WR TDs/game — MOST NFL | only 0.1 TE TD/game — T-3rd-fewest.
Minnesota defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | only 0.6 WR TD/game — T-5th-fewest | 0.0 TE TD/game — fewest NFL.
Justin Jefferson gets the No. 1 WR touchdown matchup in football.
Buffalo allows 1.6 WR TDs/game — higher than any defense in your supplied WR table.
Jordan Addison gets the same elite positional matchup.
Minnesota's TE matchup is the exact opposite: Buffalo allows only 0.1 TE TD/game, so T.J. Hockenson's seven red-zone targets run directly into a difficult TD defense.
Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason also receive a favorable 1.0 RB rushing TD/game matchup.
Buffalo's offense faces a difficult TD defense at every position.
Minnesota allows only 0.6 RB, 0.6 WR and 0.0 TE TDs/game.
That makes James Cook's positive model edge particularly noteworthy because it survives a difficult DvP matchup.

MySpariEdge TD Model

James Cook: 55.2% | Fair -123 | Book -114 | +1.9% edge
Josh Allen: 46.7% | Fair +114 | Book -120 | -7.8% edge
Cook is one of the cleaner model values among the higher-probability scorers.
Josh Allen remains a great scorer candidate, but -120 is dramatically shorter than the model's +114 fair price.

TD Targets: Justin Jefferson | James Cook | Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason
Secondary WR Target: Jordan Addison
Best Model Value: James Cook +1.9%
Price Warning: Josh Allen
TD Read: Minnesota WR touchdowns are the matchup attack. James Cook is the model-value attack. Jefferson gets the single best WR-TD DvP matchup available.

WEEK 9 TD BOARD — BIG PICTURE

Strongest Overall TD Environments

Bengals vs. Falcons — 52.5
Raiders @ 49ers — 52.5
Cowboys @ Colts — 51.5
Lions @ Dolphins — 50.5
Jets @ Chiefs — 47.5
Rams @ Commanders — 47.5
Buccaneers @ Bears — 47.5
Packers @ Patriots — 46.5
Bills @ Vikings — 45.5

HIGHEST MYSparIEDGE TD PROBABILITIES — REMAINING WEEK 9 GAMES

Jahmyr Gibbs — 72.4%
Javonte Williams — 68.0%
Kenneth Walker III — 67.1%
Christian McCaffrey — 64.6%
D'Andre Swift — 64.2%
Kyren Williams — 58.2%
Jonathan Taylor — 57.8%
Josh Jacobs — 56.5%
James Cook — 55.2%
Ashton Jeanty — 49.0%
Puka Nacua — 48.9%
Chuba Hubbard — 48.6%
Chase Brown — 48.4%
Amon-Ra St. Brown — 48.3%
Ollie Gordon II / Bucky Irving — 47.5%

BEST POSITIVE MODEL EDGES

Michael Wilson +335 — +21.5%
Trey McBride +235 — +14.4%
Ashton Jeanty +160 — +10.5%
Sam LaPorta +195 — +4.7%
Josh Jacobs -120 — +2.0%
James Cook -114 — +1.9%
Jonathan Taylor -135 — +0.4%
Javonte Williams -210 — +0.3%

Near Fair

Kyren Williams -141 — -0.3%
Kenneth Walker III -210 — -0.6%

BIGGEST PRICE WARNINGS FROM THE MODEL

Bijan Robinson -240 — -25.4%
Chase Brown -155 — -12.4%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba -124 — -9.7%
Christian McCaffrey -275 — -8.7%
George Kittle -103 — -8.7%
Ja'Marr Chase -105 — -8.2%
Josh Allen -120 — -7.8%
CeeDee Lamb -109 — -6.8%
Puka Nacua -120 — -5.6%
Amon-Ra St. Brown -110 — -4.1%
Chuba Hubbard -111 — -4.0%
Jonah Coleman +110 — -3.3%
Jahmyr Gibbs -300 — -2.6%
Quinshon Judkins +110 — -2.2%

BEST RUSHING-TD DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS

Graphic-Ready List

Quinshon Judkins vs. NO: 1.6 RB rushing TD/game allowed — MOST NFL
Jonah Coleman vs. CAR: 1.4 — 2nd-most
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. GB: 1.3 — 3rd-most
Woody Marks vs. LAC: 1.1 — 4th-most
Christian McCaffrey vs. LV: 1.0 — T-8th-most
Jonathan Taylor vs. DAL: 1.0 — T-8th-most
Chase Brown vs. ATL: 1.0 — T-8th-most
Vikings RBs vs. BUF: 1.0 — T-8th-most

Rushing-TD Notes

Judkins has the best raw rushing-TD matchup.
Coleman gets the No. 2 matchup and an expanding role.
Rhamondre gets a major Green Bay RB-TD funnel.
Woody Marks combines the No. 4 matchup with concentrated Houston volume.
CMC has elite matchup + team total but a very expensive model price.
Jonathan Taylor has both a favorable matchup and a slight positive model edge.

BEST WR TD MATCHUPS

Graphic-Ready List

Justin Jefferson vs. BUF: 1.6 WR TD/game allowed — MOST NFL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. ARI: 1.4 — 2nd-most
49ers WRs vs. LV: 1.3 — T-5th-most
Malik Nabers vs. PHI: 1.3 — T-5th-most
Makai Lemon / DeVonta Smith vs. NYG: 1.3 — T-5th-most
Rashee Rice vs. NYJ: 1.1 — T-8th-most
Christian Watson / Matthew Golden vs. NE: 1.1 — T-8th-most

WR TD Notes

Justin Jefferson gets the best WR scoring matchup in football.
JSN gets the second-best, although the MySpariEdge model strongly dislikes the -124 supplied price.
49ers WRs get an elite matchup, but injuries make the exact beneficiary important.
Giants-Eagles is a two-sided WR TD funnel with both defenses allowing 1.3/game.
Michael Wilson is not on the best DvP list, but his +335 price creates the model's largest positive edge.

BEST TE TD MATCHUPS

Greg Dulcich vs. DET: 1.6 TE TD/game allowed — MOST NFL
Tyler Higbee vs. WAS: 1.1 — 2nd-most
George Kittle vs. LV: 1.0 — 3rd-most
Sam LaPorta vs. MIA: 0.9 — 4th-most
Jake Ferguson vs. IND: 0.8 — T-6th-most
Evan Engram vs. CAR: 0.7 — T-8th-most
Mason Taylor vs. KC: 0.7 — T-8th-most

TE TD Notes

Greg Dulcich vs. Detroit is the strongest pure TE matchup.
Higbee gets the second-best TE TD defense to target.
Kittle gets the third-best but is heavily overpriced by the model.
LaPorta is perhaps the best blend of matchup and model value: 0.9 TE TD/game allowed + +4.7% model edge.
Ferguson quietly gets a strong TE TD matchup inside one of Week 9's highest-total games.

GOAL-LINE / ROLE PROFILES TO BUILD AROUND

These are NOT automatically picks. They are players whose role, model probability, team environment and/or TD matchup make them important weekly touchdown candidates.

Jahmyr Gibbs — DET
Javonte Williams — DAL
Kenneth Walker III — KC
Christian McCaffrey — SF
D'Andre Swift — CHI
Kyren Williams — LAR
Jonathan Taylor — IND
James Cook — BUF
Josh Jacobs — GB
Chase Brown — CIN
Quinshon Judkins — CLE
Woody Marks — HOU
Rhamondre Stevenson — NE

RECEIVING TD PROFILES THAT STAND OUT

Justin Jefferson — MIN
Sam LaPorta — DET
Greg Dulcich — MIA
Tyler Higbee — LAR
George Kittle — SF
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — SEA
Malik Nabers — NYG
Rashee Rice — KC
Christian Watson — GB
Matthew Golden — GB
Michael Wilson — ARI
Trey McBride — ARI
Jake Ferguson — DAL
Makai Lemon — PHI

MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING RB TOUCHDOWNS

Raiders RBs vs. SF — 0.3 RB TD/game allowed, T-FEWEST NFL
Commanders RBs vs. LAR — 0.3, T-FEWEST
Buccaneers RBs vs. CHI — 0.4, T-3rd-fewest
Bears RBs vs. TB — 0.4, T-3rd-fewest
Giants RBs vs. PHI isn't elite at 0.8, while NYG's own defense allows only 0.4 to Eagles RBs
Lions RBs vs. MIA — 0.4, T-3rd-fewest
Packers RBs vs. NE — 0.6, T-9th-fewest

Most Interesting Conflict

Ashton Jeanty: +10.5% model edge but faces a San Francisco defense allowing only 0.3 RB rushing TD/game.

MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING WR TOUCHDOWNS

Jets WRs vs. KC — 0.3 WR TD/game allowed, FEWEST NFL
Broncos WRs vs. CAR — 0.6, T-5th-fewest
Panthers WRs vs. DEN — 0.5, T-2nd-fewest
Buccaneers WRs vs. CHI — 1.0 is neutral, while Bears WRs vs. TB get only 0.6
Cardinals WRs vs. SEA — 0.6, T-5th-fewest
Bills WRs vs. MIN — 0.6, T-5th-fewest

Biggest Model-vs-Matchup Conflict

Michael Wilson: Seattle allows only 0.6 WR TD/game, but +335 creates a +21.5% MySpariEdge model edge.

MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING TE TOUCHDOWNS

Bills TEs vs. MIN — 0.0 TE TD/game allowed, FEWEST NFL
Commanders TEs vs. LAR — 0.1, T-3rd-fewest
Chargers TEs vs. HOU — 0.1, T-3rd-fewest
Texans TEs vs. LAC — 0.1, T-3rd-fewest
Eagles TEs vs. NYG — 0.3
Giants TEs vs. PHI — 0.3
Packers TEs vs. NE — 0.3

BIGGEST POSITIONAL FUNNELS OF WEEK 9

(Read as Defense vs. the opposing team’s position. Example: Saints vs. RB’s have been really bad!)

New Orleans: RB

1.6 RB rushing TD/game — MOST NFL
WR: 0.9
TE: 0.6
Target: Quinshon Judkins

Carolina: RB

1.4 RB rushing TD/game — 2nd-most
WR: only 0.6
Target: Jonah Coleman

Green Bay: RB

1.3 RB rushing TD/game — 3rd-most
TE: only 0.3
Target: Rhamondre Stevenson

Buffalo: WR

1.6 WR TD/game — MOST NFL
RB: 1.0
TE: only 0.1
Target: Justin Jefferson / Jordan Addison

Arizona: WR

1.4 WR TD/game — 2nd-most
RB: only 0.6
Target: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Las Vegas: EVERYTHING

1.0 RB TD/game
1.3 WR TD/game — T-5th-most
1.0 TE TD/game — 3rd-most
Targets: CMC | 49ers WRs | George Kittle

Detroit: TE

RB: only 0.6
WR: 0.9
TE: 1.6 TD/game — MOST NFL
Target: Greg Dulcich

Washington: TE

RB: 0.7
WR: 1.0
TE: 1.1 TD/game — 2nd-most
Target: Tyler Higbee

Kansas City: NOT WR

WR: 0.3 TD/game — FEWEST NFL
TE: 0.7
Avoid forcing Jets WR TDs; Mason Taylor is the relative positional route.

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All of my betting models + tools via the SHARP ACCESS here: MySpariEdge