NFL WEEK 10 TOUCHDOWN SCORER BREAKDOWN
TD data note: All RB rushing-TD, WR receiving-TD and TE receiving-TD figures below come only from the supplied MySpariEdge DvP screenshots. They are season-to-date, per-game figures. Rank 1 = most allowed.
Model note: All model probabilities, fair odds, book odds and Edge% come only from the supplied MySpariEdge touchdown-model screenshots.
Market note: Betting lines are a Week 10 market snapshot and can move before kickoff.
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New England Patriots @ Detroit Lions — Munich — 9:30 AM ET
Market: Lions -2.5 | Total 51.5
Approx. implied points: DET 27.0 | NE 24.5
TD Matchup Data
- Detroit defense: only 0.5 RB rushing TD/game — 5th-fewest | 0.8 WR TD/game | 1.4 TE TDs/game — MOST NFL.
- New England defense: 0.7 RB rushing TD/game | 1.3 WR TDs/game — 3rd-most | only 0.2 TE TD/game — 7th-fewest.
- The defensive splits create two very different touchdown paths.
- Detroit WR touchdowns are the matchup attack. New England has allowed 1.3 WR scores/game, while doing a considerably better job against RBs and TEs.
- That makes Amon-Ra St. Brown one of Detroit's cleanest matchup-specific scoring candidates.
- New England gets the opposite funnel: Detroit continues to allow more TE touchdowns than any defense in football.
- That puts Hunter Henry squarely on the radar if his health permits. Detroit's 1.4 TE TD/game is dramatically higher than its RB or WR allowance.
- Henry was limited on the injury report, while Detroit's Amon-Ra St. Brown was also limited. TreVeyon Henderson has been ruled out, which also impacts New England's backfield distribution.
- FantasyPros notes that Henry's role was reduced while playing through a foot issue last week, but also identifies Detroit as an excellent TE matchup.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 69.6% TD probability | Fair -229 | Book -235 | -0.5% edge
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 47.1% | Fair +112 | Book +100 | -2.9% edge
- Sam LaPorta: 35.0% | Fair +185 | Book +220 | +3.8% edge
- Rhamondre Stevenson: 34.9% | Fair +187 | Book +105 | -13.9% edge
- Gibbs owns the highest scoring probability in this game, but Detroit's opponent allows only 0.7 RB TD/game and the price is essentially fully efficient.
- Amon-Ra gets the best Detroit positional matchup but is slightly overpriced in the model.
- LaPorta provides actual plus-money model value, though New England allows only 0.2 TE TD/game.
- Stevenson has a possible workload boost with Henderson out, but the model strongly rejects the +105 supplied price relative to +187 fair.
TD Targets: Jahmyr Gibbs | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Hunter Henry
**Model Value:** Sam LaPorta +3.8%
Price Warning: Rhamondre Stevenson
**TD Read:** Detroit WRs and New England TEs are the matchup-specific angles. Gibbs remains the most likely scorer, while LaPorta is the better Detroit price-value play.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Chiefs -3.5 | Total 47.5
Approx. implied points: KC 25.5 | ATL 22.0
TD Matchup Data
- Atlanta defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game — 10th-most | 0.8 WR TD/game — 9th-fewest | 0.4 TE TD/game.
- Kansas City defense: only 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 0.3 WR TD/game — FEWEST NFL | 0.6 TE TD/game.
- The cleanest Kansas City touchdown path is Kenneth Walker III.
- Atlanta is considerably easier to score rushing TDs against than through either WRs or TEs.
- Walker also has the added benefit of a Chiefs offense favored on the road with more than 25 implied points.
- Atlanta gets a much harder setup. Kansas City is the single toughest WR-TD defense in your supplied table.
- That creates a serious matchup concern for Drake London.
- Kyle Pitts is the relatively better Atlanta receiving path because Kansas City allows 0.6 TE TD/game versus only 0.3 to WRs.
- FantasyPros also notes Atlanta has struggled against the run recently, while Kansas City's complementary RB Emmett Johnson has scored in consecutive games.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Kenneth Walker III: 69.4% | Fair -227 | Book -210 | +1.7% edge
- Bijan Robinson: 44.0% | Fair +127 | Book -190 | -21.5% edge
- Walker combines one of the week's highest model probabilities with a positive edge at the supplied price.
- Bijan is the exact opposite. A 44% scoring probability is respectable, but -190 is nowhere near the model's +127 fair price.
- Bijan also faces a Kansas City defense allowing only 0.6 RB rushing TD/game.
TD Targets: Kenneth Walker III | Kyle Pitts
Atlanta Elite Talent: Bijan Robinson
**Best Model Value:** Kenneth Walker +1.7%
**Big Price Warning:** Bijan Robinson -21.5%
TD Read: Walker is one of the strongest model + matchup + game-script combinations on the Week 10 slate. Bijan remains capable of scoring, but both DvP and price work against him.
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Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Texans -4.5 | Total 40.5
Approx. implied points: HOU 22.5 | CLE 18.0
TD Matchup Data
- Cleveland defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 0.8 WR TD/game | 0.6 TE TD/game.
- Houston defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 1.0 WR TD/game | only 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- There is no extreme positional TD funnel on the Houston side.
- Woody Marks gets a relatively neutral RB-TD matchup, but his workload has become significant. Since Week 6, FantasyPros has him at a 76.5% snap rate, 66.7% of the rushing work and an average of 18.6 touches.
- Nico Collins and Tank Dell face an equally neutral 0.8 WR TD/game Cleveland defense.
- Cleveland's best positional route is WR rather than TE, because Houston has allowed 1.0 WR TD/game but just 0.1 to tight ends.
- That significantly hurts Harold Fannin Jr. from a TD-DvP perspective.
- Quinshon Judkins has been losing some work to Dylan Sampson, but FantasyPros still has him handling 55.1% of Cleveland's rushing work over his last three games.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Quinshon Judkins: 46.6% | Fair +114 | Book +180 | +10.9% edge
- Woody Marks: 37.2% | Fair +169 | Book +145 | -3.6% edge
- Judkins is one of the strongest value bets on the entire supplied model board.
- His 46.6% estimated scoring probability corresponds to +114 fair, yet the screenshot price is +180.
- Marks gets the better game script as a favorite but is slightly overpriced by the model.
TD Targets: Quinshon Judkins | Woody Marks | Nico Collins
**Best Model Value:** Quinshon Judkins +10.9%
TD Read: There isn't a huge defensive TD funnel here, so price becomes especially important. Judkins stands out because the model sees a near-coin-flip scoring probability at a substantial plus-money price.
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Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Packers -3.5 | Total 41.5
Approx. implied points: GB 22.5 | MIN 19.0
TD Matchup Data
- **Green Bay defense:** 1.2 RB rushing TDs/game — 3rd-most NFL | 1.0 WR TD/game | only 0.2 TE TD/game.
- Minnesota defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 0.5 WR TD/game — T-2nd-fewest | 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- The best touchdown matchup in this game belongs to the Minnesota backfield.
- Green Bay ranks third-most in RB rushing TDs allowed.
- Jordan Mason has taken over as Minnesota's lead back recently, carrying a 49.2% rushing share over the previous three games.
- Minnesota's passing-game stars face a more neutral WR matchup and a very difficult TE scoring matchup.
- T.J. Hockenson has seven red-zone targets, but Green Bay allows only 0.2 TE TD/game.
- Green Bay's receiving scorers draw a brutal DvP setup. Minnesota allows only 0.5 WR and 0.1 TE TD/game.
- That makes Matthew Golden's positive model value interesting because it comes despite a difficult opponent TD profile.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Matthew Golden: 38.9% | Fair +157 | Book +166 | +1.3% edge
- The price is slightly favorable, but the opponent matchup is clearly difficult.
- No Minnesota RB appears in the supplied model screenshots, so I won't manufacture a model probability for the game's best DvP angle.
TD Targets: Jordan Mason | Matthew Golden
Secondary: Christian Watson
**Best Model Value:** Matthew Golden +1.3%
**Best Pure DvP:** Minnesota RBs vs. GB
TD Read: The strongest data point is Green Bay's 1.2 RB rushing TDs/game allowed, third-most. Minnesota's lead back is the matchup angle; Golden is the model-price angle.
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Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Colts -3.5 | Total 37.5
Approx. implied points: IND 20.5 | MIA 17.0
TD Matchup Data
- Indianapolis defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game — T-10th-most | 0.8 WR TD/game | 0.8 TE TD/game — T-6th-most.
- Miami defense: only 0.5 RB rushing TD/game — 5th-fewest | 0.6 WR TD/game — 5th-fewest | 0.8 TE TD/game — T-6th-most.
- This is another matchup where TE touchdowns stand out more than WR touchdowns.
- Tyler Warren gets Miami's 0.8 TE TD/game defense.
- Greg Dulcich gets exactly the same 0.8 TE TD/game matchup against Indianapolis.
- Jonathan Taylor remains the obvious Colts scoring candidate by role, but Miami has allowed only 0.5 RB rushing TD/game.
- Ollie Gordon gets the better raw RB DvP with Indianapolis allowing 0.9/game, but Miami carries only about 17 implied points.
- Miami will be starting Kyle McCord after Malik Willis was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury.
- FantasyPros still ranks Taylor as a must-start RB1/2 and Warren as a TE1 for this matchup.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Jonathan Taylor: 54.4% | Fair -119 | Book -110 | +2.0% edge
- Ollie Gordon II: 42.3% | Fair +136 | Book +125 | -2.1% edge
- Taylor is a strong example of a player whose role and model outweigh a difficult positional matchup.
- At -110, the model still sees genuine value.
- Gordon has a better DvP but a worse team scoring environment and slightly negative price value.
TD Targets: Jonathan Taylor | Tyler Warren | Greg Dulcich
Miami RB: Ollie Gordon II
**Best Model Value:** Jonathan Taylor +2.0%
TD Read: Taylor is the safest overall scorer, but both TEs get one of the higher TE-TD rates on the slate. Warren and Dulcich are the positional matchup angles.
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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Saints -2.5 | Total 48.5
Approx. implied points: NO 25.5 | CAR 23.0
TD Matchup Data
- **New Orleans defense:** 1.4 RB rushing TDs/game — T-2nd-most NFL | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.6 TE TD/game.
- **Carolina defense:** 1.4 RB rushing TDs/game — T-2nd-most NFL | 0.8 WR TD/game | 0.6 TE TD/game.
- This is the premier two-sided RB touchdown matchup of Week 10.
- Both defenses are allowing 1.4 rushing TDs/game specifically to RBs.
- Chuba Hubbard therefore gets an elite matchup regardless of the model's price concerns.
- The New Orleans backfield has been more complicated, so identifying which RB controls the premium touches is critical before betting.
- Carolina's passing game also has a workable matchup. Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker face a neutral 0.9 WR-TD defense.
- Darren Waller owns four red-zone targets, and FantasyPros notes New Orleans has recently been vulnerable to tight ends beyond just touchdowns.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Chuba Hubbard: 48.9% | Fair +105 | Book -155 | -11.9% edge
- Tetairoa McMillan: 35.2% | Fair +184 | Book +150 | -4.8% edge
- Chuba is an excellent scorer candidate and a poor supplied-price bet at the same time.
- The model thinks nearly 49% to score, but that equates to roughly +105 fair — nowhere near -155.
- McMillan is also priced slightly too short.
TD Targets: Chuba Hubbard | Saints lead RB | Tetairoa McMillan
**Best Matchup Direction:** RBs on both sides
Big Price Warning: Chuba Hubbard
**TD Read:** Attack RB touchdowns, but don't ignore price. This is the strongest two-sided rushing-TD DvP game on the slate.
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Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Bills -7.5 | Total 50.5
Approx. implied points: BUF 29.0 | NYJ 21.5
TD Matchup Data
- New York defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 1.0 WR TD/game | 0.3 TE TD/game.
- Buffalo defense: 0.9 RB rushing TD/game — T-10th-most | 1.4 WR TDs/game — T-2nd-most NFL | only 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- The Jets' touchdown matchup is extremely position-specific.
- WR is the path against Buffalo. The Bills allow 1.4 WR touchdowns/game but virtually nothing to TEs.
- Garrett Wilson's health therefore matters substantially. The Jets' receiver room has been dealing with multiple injuries entering Week 10.
- Breece Hall gets a decent but not elite 0.9 RB TD/game matchup.
- Buffalo's side is less position-specific. James Cook gets a neutral 0.8 RB TD/game defense, while Bills WRs see a neutral 1.0 rate.
- The much larger factor is Buffalo's 29-point implied team total.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- James Cook: 62.3% | Fair -165 | Book -160 | +0.8% edge
- Josh Allen: 49.3% | Fair +103 | Book -155 | -11.5% edge
- Breece Hall: 36.5% | Fair +174 | Book +115 | -10.0% edge
- Cook combines a high raw scoring probability with a slightly favorable price.
- Josh Allen is once again a great scorer candidate but a bad supplied-price bet.
- Breece faces a decent matchup, but +115 is far shorter than the model's +174 fair line.
TD Targets: James Cook | Jets WR1 if healthy
Secondary: Breece Hall
**Best Model Value:** James Cook +0.8%
Price Warnings: Josh Allen | Breece Hall
**TD Read:** Cook is the clean Buffalo bet. For the Jets, attack Buffalo with WRs rather than TEs.
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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans — 1:00 PM ET
Market: Jaguars -10.5 | Total 46.5
Approx. implied points: JAX 28.5 | TEN 18.0
TD Matchup Data
- Tennessee defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 0.9 WR TD/game | 0.5 TE TD/game.
- Jacksonville defense: only 0.5 RB rushing TD/game — 5th-fewest | 0.5 WR TD/game — T-2nd-fewest | 0.5 TE TD/game.
- Jacksonville has a huge team-scoring advantage but doesn't get an extreme positional TD funnel.
- Bhayshul Tuten still stands out by role and game script, though his sportsbook price is a major issue in the model.
- Tuten opened the week missing practice with ankle/foot issues, so his final status matters.
- Chris Rodriguez is an interesting deeper TD option if Tuten's workload is limited. He already has 12 red-zone carries despite a small overall workload.
- Tony Pollard has been extremely productive recently, averaging 23.7 touches and 122.6 total yards since Week 6, but Jacksonville has remained difficult to run on.
- Jacksonville also suppresses WR TDs extremely well, making Tennessee receivers poor matchup-specific targets.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Tony Pollard: 45.9% | Fair +118 | Book +115 | -0.6% edge
- Bhayshul Tuten: 43.5% | Fair +130 | Book -120 | -11.0% edge
- Pollard is essentially fairly priced.
- Tuten's -120 price is extremely aggressive relative to a model fair line of +130.
TD Targets: Tony Pollard | Bhayshul Tuten if healthy | Chris Rodriguez longer odds
Best Price: Tony Pollard approximately fair
Big Price Warning: Bhayshul Tuten
TD Read: Jacksonville should create scoring opportunities, but Tuten's price is dramatically shorter than his model probability warrants. Pollard has the better price despite the tougher team environment.
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Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals — 4:05 PM ET
Market: Rams -9.5 | Total 39.5
Approx. implied points: LAR 24.5 | ARI 15.0
TD Matchup Data
- Arizona defense: 0.6 RB rushing TD/game | 1.2 WR TDs/game — T-5th-most | 0.7 TE TD/game — T-8th-most.
- **Rams defense:** 0.2 RB rushing TD/game — FEWEST NFL | 1.0 WR TD/game | 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- Arizona's biggest weakness is clearly against pass catchers, not RBs.
- That makes Rams WRs and Tyler Higbee more natural matchup attacks than Kyren Williams strictly from DvP.
- Kyren still has an elite role and a huge favorite game script, which is why his model probability remains high.
- Arizona gets one of the most difficult RB/TE scoring defenses possible.
- That creates a major conflict for Trey McBride: the Rams allow only 0.1 TE TD/game, yet the model sees enormous value at his supplied price.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Kyren Williams: 58.9% | Fair -143 | Book -130 | +2.4% edge
- Trey McBride: 39.9% | Fair +150 | Book +275 | +13.2% edge
- Kyren is one of the cleanest model-value favorites on the slate.
- McBride is the larger mathematical value, but he faces one of the worst possible TE touchdown matchups.
- This is exactly the type of model-vs-DvP conflict worth highlighting.
TD Targets: Kyren Williams | Rams WRs | Tyler Higbee
**Contrarian Value:** Trey McBride +13.2%
**Best Model Value:** McBride +13.2% | Kyren +2.4%
**TD Read:** Rams passing-game scorers get the matchup; Kyren gets the game script and model; McBride gets the price.
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Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders — 4:05 PM ET
Market: Seahawks -6.5 | Total 40.5
Approx. implied points: SEA 23.5 | LV 17.0
TD Matchup Data
- **Las Vegas defense:** 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-7th-most | 1.2 WR TDs/game — T-5th-most | 0.9 TE TD/game — 3rd-most.
- Seattle defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | only 0.6 WR TD/game — 5th-fewest | only 0.2 TE TD/game.
- Las Vegas is one of the best all-position TD defenses to attack.
- Seattle has favorable DvP at RB, WR and TE.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba gets the 1.2 WR TD/game matchup.
- AJ Barner gets an even stronger positional rank, with Vegas third-most in TE scores allowed.
- Seattle's backfield is a committee, which creates longer-price opportunities but also significantly more uncertainty.
- Vegas gets a poor passing-game matchup on the other side. Seattle has been excellent at suppressing WR and TE touchdowns.
- Ashton Jeanty gets the Raiders' best route at 0.8 RB TD/game allowed, but even that is merely neutral.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Ashton Jeanty: 45.6% | Fair +119 | Book +185 | +10.5% edge
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 44.2% | Fair +126 | Book +105 | -4.6% edge
- Emanuel Wilson: 37.8% | Fair +164 | Book +1400 | +31.1% edge
- AJ Barner: 35.4% | Fair +183 | Book +300 | +10.4% edge
- Emanuel Wilson has by far the largest raw edge in the supplied model, but +1400 reflects substantial role uncertainty, so this should not be treated like a normal 37.8% player with a secure workload.
- Barner is much cleaner conceptually: excellent TE DvP plus a large model edge.
- Jeanty gets a worse matchup but another huge price discrepancy.
- JSN has the great matchup but the model doesn't like the +105 supplied price.
TD Targets: AJ Barner | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seattle RBs
Contrarian Target: Ashton Jeanty
**Model Values:** Emanuel Wilson +31.1% | Jeanty +10.5% | Barner +10.4%
**TD Read:** Seattle owns the matchup. Jeanty owns the opposing-side price. AJ Barner may offer the cleanest combination of matchup and positive model edge.
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San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys — 4:25 PM ET
Market: 49ers -4.5 | Total 55.5
Approx. implied points: SF 30.0 | DAL 25.5
TD Matchup Data
- **Dallas defense:** 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-7th-most | 1.0 WR TD/game | 0.4 TE TD/game.
- San Francisco defense: only 0.3 RB rushing TD/game — 2nd-fewest | 0.8 WR TD/game | 0.4 TE TD/game.
- This is the highest-total game on the Week 10 board.
- Christian McCaffrey gets the obvious touchdown environment: San Francisco is implied for approximately 30 points and Dallas allows 1.0 RB TD/game.
- George Kittle and the 49ers receivers get more neutral DvP numbers.
- Dallas gets the opposite RB matchup. San Francisco allows only 0.3 rushing TD/game to RBs.
- That makes Javonte Williams' strong model projection particularly impressive, but also creates real DvP risk.
- CeeDee Lamb has the more workable Dallas scoring route because San Francisco's 0.8 WR TD/game is much less restrictive than its RB number.
- FantasyPros lists CMC, Javonte, CeeDee and Kittle among the key fantasy starters in what projects as a high-scoring game.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Christian McCaffrey: 65.1% | Fair -186 | Book -265 | -7.5% edge
- Javonte Williams: 63.7% | Fair -176 | Book -170 | +0.7% edge
- CeeDee Lamb: 45.8% | Fair +118 | Book -111 | -6.8% edge
- George Kittle: 38.1% | Fair +163 | Book +110 | -9.5% edge
- CMC gets the best matchup but a very bad sportsbook price.
- Javonte gets the worst matchup but is almost exactly fairly priced by the model.
- CeeDee and Kittle are both significantly overpriced at their supplied odds.
TD Targets: Christian McCaffrey | Javonte Williams | CeeDee Lamb
**Best Model Price:** Javonte +0.7%
Big Price Warnings: CMC | Kittle | CeeDee
**TD Read:** Attack the game, not every player. CMC has matchup + environment; Javonte has model price; CeeDee has the cleaner Dallas positional path.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals — 8:20 PM ET
Market: Bengals -3.5 | Total 49.5
Approx. implied points: CIN 26.5 | PIT 23.0
TD Matchup Data
- Cincinnati defense: 0.8 RB rushing TD/game | 1.0 WR TD/game | only 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- Pittsburgh defense: only 0.4 RB rushing TD/game — 4th-fewest | 0.5 WR TD/game — T-2nd-fewest | 0.3 TE TD/game.
- The 49.5 total is attractive, but Pittsburgh's TD DvP numbers are extremely difficult.
- Chase Brown gets only 0.4 RB TD/game.
- Ja'Marr Chase gets only 0.5 WR TD/game.
- Cincinnati's offense is therefore a classic case where team scoring environment is much better than the positional matchup data.
- Pittsburgh's better route is WR. Cincinnati allows 1.0 WR TD/game compared with only 0.1 to TEs.
- That puts DK Metcalf and Germie Bernard ahead of Pat Freiermuth/Darnell Washington from a pure DvP perspective.
- Jaylen Warren gets a neutral 0.8 RB TD/game.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Chase Brown: 43.9% | Fair +128 | Book -108 | -8.0% edge
- Ja'Marr Chase: 40.6% | Fair +146 | Book -120 | -13.9% edge
- Jaylen Warren: 37.5% | Fair +166 | Book +105 | -11.3% edge
- The model dislikes all three supplied prices.
- Ja'Marr has the largest mismatch between reputation/book price and model fair odds.
- FantasyPros has Warren as Pittsburgh's top RB option in the matchup.
TD Targets: DK Metcalf | Chase Brown | Ja'Marr Chase
Pittsburgh RB: Jaylen Warren
**Price Warnings:** Ja'Marr Chase | Warren | Chase Brown
TD Read: High game total, but the obvious scorer prices are poor and Pittsburgh's defense has been excellent at preventing RB and WR touchdowns.
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Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens — Monday 8:15 PM ET
Market: Ravens -4.5 | Total 38.5
Approx. implied points: BAL 21.5 | LAC 17.0
## TD Matchup Data
- **Baltimore defense:** 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-7th-most | only 0.7 WR TD/game — 8th-fewest | 0.7 TE TD/game — T-8th-most.
- **Chargers defense:** 1.0 RB rushing TD/game — T-7th-most | 1.4 WR TDs/game — T-2nd-most NFL | only 0.1 TE TD/game — tied for fewest.
- Baltimore has two very clean touchdown paths: Derrick Henry on the ground and Ravens WRs through the air.
- The Chargers allow 1.0 RB rushing TD/game and 1.4 WR receiving TDs/game.
- Derrick Henry therefore gets one of the best combinations of goal-line role and positional DvP on the slate.
- Baltimore's WR room also gets the second-highest WR-TD rate in your table.
- George Kittle-style TE attacks are not the play here: the Chargers allow only 0.1 TE TD/game.
- The Chargers' relative scoring paths are RB and TE. Baltimore allows 1.0 RB TD/game and 0.7 TE TD/game but has been much tougher against WRs.
- Lamar Jackson is expected to miss multiple weeks with a thumb injury, changing the Baltimore passing environment considerably.
MySpariEdge TD Model
- Derrick Henry: 57.2% | Fair -133 | Book -135 | -0.2% edge
- Henry is almost perfectly priced.
- His matchup is considerably better than the model edge itself suggests: the Chargers are top-seven in RB rushing TDs allowed.
- No Chargers player from this matchup appears in the supplied model screenshots.
TD Targets: Derrick Henry | Ravens WR1 | Chargers lead RB
Chargers TE Pivot: Oronde Gadsden II
**Best Price:** Derrick Henry essentially fair
**TD Read:** Henry is the obvious alignment play. Role, DvP and favorite game script all agree, even if there isn't a large model pricing edge.
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WEEK 10 TD BOARD — BIG PICTURE
Strongest Overall TD Environments
- 49ers @ Cowboys — 55.5
- Patriots @ Lions — 51.5
- Bills @ Jets — 50.5
- Steelers @ Bengals — 49.5
- Panthers @ Saints — 48.5
- Chiefs @ Falcons — 47.5
- Jaguars @ Titans — 46.5
- Vikings @ Packers — 41.5
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HIGHEST MYSpariEdge TD PROBABILITIES
- Jahmyr Gibbs — 69.6%
- Kenneth Walker III — 69.4%
- Christian McCaffrey — 65.1%
- D'Andre Swift — 64.2% (bye — not part of Week 10 slate)
- Javonte Williams — 63.7%
- James Cook — 62.3%
- Kyren Williams — 58.9%
- Derrick Henry — 57.2%
- Jonathan Taylor — 54.4%
- Josh Allen — 49.3%
- Chuba Hubbard — 48.9%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — 47.1%
- Quinshon Judkins — 46.6%
- Tony Pollard — 45.9%
- CeeDee Lamb — 45.8%
- Ashton Jeanty — 45.6%
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BEST POSITIVE MODEL EDGES — ACTIONABLE WEEK 10
- Emanuel Wilson +1400 — +31.1%
- Trey McBride +275 — +13.2%
- Quinshon Judkins +180 — +10.9%
- Ashton Jeanty +185 — +10.5%
- AJ Barner +300 — +10.4%
- Sam LaPorta +220 — +3.8%
- Kyren Williams -130 — +2.4%
- Jonathan Taylor -110 — +2.0%
- Kenneth Walker III -210 — +1.7%
- Matthew Golden +166 — +1.3%
- James Cook -160 — +0.8%
- Javonte Williams -170 — +0.7%
Essentially Fair
- Derrick Henry -135 — -0.2%
- Tony Pollard +115 — -0.6%
- Jahmyr Gibbs -235 — -0.5%
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BIGGEST PRICE WARNINGS FROM THE MODEL
- Bijan Robinson -190 — -21.5%
- Ja'Marr Chase -120 — -13.9%
- Rhamondre Stevenson +105 — -13.9%
- Chuba Hubbard -155 — -11.9%
- Josh Allen -155 — -11.5%
- Jaylen Warren +105 — -11.3%
- Bhayshul Tuten -120 — -11.0%
- Breece Hall +115 — -10.0%
- George Kittle +110 — -9.5%
- Chase Brown -108 — -8.0%
- Christian McCaffrey -265 — -7.5%
- CeeDee Lamb -111 — -6.8%
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba +105 — -4.6%
- Amon-Ra St. Brown +100 — -2.9%
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BEST RUSHING-TD DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
1. **Chuba Hubbard vs. NO:** 1.4 RB rushing TD/game allowed — T-2nd-most
2. **Saints lead RB vs. CAR:** 1.4 — T-2nd-most
3. **Vikings lead RB vs. GB:** 1.2 — 3rd-most
4. **Christian McCaffrey vs. DAL:** 1.0 — T-7th-most
5. **Derrick Henry vs. LAC:** 1.0 — T-7th-most
6. **Kenneth Walker III vs. ATL:** 0.9 — T-10th-most
7. **Breece Hall vs. BUF:** 0.9 — T-10th-most
8. **Ollie Gordon vs. IND:** 0.9 — T-10th-most
Rushing-TD Notes
- Carolina-New Orleans is the premier two-sided rushing-TD matchup.
- Minnesota RBs vs. Green Bay get the third-best rate in the NFL.
- CMC gets a top-seven rushing TD matchup inside the week's highest-total game.
- Henry gets another top-seven RB matchup against the Chargers.
- Walker combines a favorable matchup with a 69.4% model probability and +1.7% price edge.
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BEST WR TD MATCHUPS
1. **Ravens WRs vs. LAC:** 1.4 WR TD/game allowed — T-2nd-most
2. **Jets WRs vs. BUF:** 1.4 — T-2nd-most
3. **Lions WRs vs. NE:** 1.3 — 3rd-most
4. **Rams WRs vs. ARI:** 1.2 — T-5th-most
5. **Seahawks WRs vs. LV:** 1.2 — T-5th-most
6. **Packers WRs vs. MIN:** 0.5 allowed — difficult matchup, so NOT an attack despite model value on Golden
Next Tier
- Bills WRs vs. NYJ: 1.0/game
- Steelers WRs vs. CIN: 1.0/game
- Cowboys WRs vs. SF: 0.8/game
WR TD Notes
- Baltimore WRs get one of the strongest WR-TD DvP matchups, though Lamar Jackson's absence changes the offensive ceiling.
- Jets WRs get the same 1.4 rate against Buffalo.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown gets New England's 1.3 WR TD/game defense.
- Rams WRs get Arizona's 1.2 rate and a large favorite game script.
- JSN gets Las Vegas' 1.2 rate but is overpriced in the supplied model.
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BEST TE TD MATCHUPS
1. **Hunter Henry vs. DET:** 1.4 TE TD/game allowed — MOST NFL
2. **AJ Barner vs. LV:** 0.9 — 3rd-most
3. **Tyler Warren vs. MIA:** 0.8 — T-6th-most
4. **Greg Dulcich vs. IND:** 0.8 — T-6th-most
5. **Tyler Higbee vs. ARI:** 0.7 — T-8th-most
6. **Oronde Gadsden II vs. BAL:** 0.7 — T-8th-most
7. **Kyle Pitts vs. KC:** 0.6 — middle tier, but comparatively better than ATL's WR matchup
TE TD Notes
- Hunter Henry vs. Detroit remains the premier TE touchdown DvP spot in football.
- AJ Barner combines the third-best TE-TD matchup with +10.4% model edge.
- Warren and Dulcich get matching 0.8 TE TD/game defenses in the Miami-Indianapolis game.
- Higbee gets Arizona's 0.7 rate while the Rams are large favorites.
- Trey McBride is NOT a good DvP matchup — the Rams allow only 0.1 TE TD/game — but +275 creates massive model price value.
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BEST PASSING-TD DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
No overall QB/pass-TD DvP screenshot was included in this week's source set, so I am intentionally not manufacturing passing-TD rankings.
For Week 10, the WR and TE touchdown splits above serve as the passing-game TD analysis, keeping the entire primer grounded in your supplied MySpariEdge data.
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GOAL-LINE / ROLE PROFILES TO BUILD AROUND
These are NOT automatic picks. They are players whose role, model probability, scoring environment, and/or opponent TD tendencies make them important touchdown candidates.
- Jahmyr Gibbs — DET
- Kenneth Walker III — KC
- Christian McCaffrey — SF
- Javonte Williams — DAL
- James Cook — BUF
- Kyren Williams — LAR
- Derrick Henry — BAL
- Jonathan Taylor — IND
- Chuba Hubbard — CAR
- Quinshon Judkins — CLE
- Tony Pollard — TEN
- Woody Marks — HOU
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RECEIVING TD PROFILES THAT STAND OUT
- Hunter Henry — NE
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — DET
- AJ Barner — SEA
- Sam LaPorta — DET
- Tyler Warren — IND
- Greg Dulcich — MIA
- Trey McBride — ARI
- Matthew Golden — GB
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — SEA
- Rams WR1 — LAR
- Jets WR1 — NYJ
- Ravens WR1 — BAL
- Tyler Higbee — LAR
- Kyle Pitts — ATL
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MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING RB TOUCHDOWNS
- Cardinals RBs vs. LAR — 0.2 RB TD/game allowed, FEWEST NFL
- Cowboys RBs vs. SF — 0.3, 2nd-fewest
- Bengals RBs vs. PIT — 0.4, 4th-fewest
- Lions RBs vs. NE — 0.7, though Gibbs' elite role keeps him highly likely
- Colts RBs vs. MIA — 0.5, 5th-fewest
- Titans RBs vs. JAX — 0.5, 5th-fewest
Interesting Conflicts
- Javonte Williams: +0.7% model edge but faces San Francisco's 0.3 RB TD/game defense.
- Jonathan Taylor: +2.0% model edge despite Miami allowing only 0.5 RB scores/game.
- Gibbs: 69.6% model probability despite Detroit's opponent allowing only 0.7 RB scores/game.
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MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING WR TOUCHDOWNS
- Falcons WRs vs. KC — 0.3 WR TD/game allowed, FEWEST NFL
- Packers WRs vs. MIN — 0.5, T-2nd-fewest
- Bengals WRs vs. PIT — 0.5, T-2nd-fewest
- Titans WRs vs. JAX — 0.5, T-2nd-fewest
- Raiders WRs vs. SEA — 0.6, T-5th-fewest
- Dolphins WRs vs. IND — 0.8, with a very low team total
Model Conflict
Matthew Golden: positive +1.3% model edge at +166 despite Minnesota allowing only 0.5 WR TD/game.
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MATCHUPS WHERE I WOULD BE CAREFUL FORCING TE TOUCHDOWNS
- Jets TEs vs. BUF — 0.1 TE TD/game allowed, T-FEWEST
- Cardinals TEs vs. LAR — 0.1, T-FEWEST
- Bengals TEs vs. PIT — 0.3
- Packers TEs vs. MIN — 0.1
- Cowboys TEs vs. SF — 0.4
- Chiefs TEs vs. ATL — 0.4
Biggest Model-vs-Matchup Conflict
Trey McBride: Rams allow only 0.1 TE TD/game, yet his +275 price creates a +13.2% model edge.
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BIGGEST POSITIONAL FUNNELS OF WEEK 10
Carolina: RB
- 1.4 RB rushing TD/game — T-2nd-most
- WR: 0.8
- TE: 0.6
- Target: New Orleans lead RB
New Orleans: RB
- 1.4 RB TD/game — T-2nd-most
- WR: 0.9
- TE: 0.6
- Target: Chuba Hubbard
Green Bay: RB
- 1.2 RB TD/game — 3rd-most
- WR: 1.0
- TE: only 0.2
- Target: Minnesota lead RB
Los Angeles Chargers: WR + RB
- 1.4 WR TD/game — T-2nd-most
- 1.0 RB TD/game — T-7th-most
- TE: only 0.1
- Targets: Derrick Henry + Baltimore WRs
Buffalo: WR
- 1.4 WR TD/game — T-2nd-most
- RB: 0.9
- TE: only 0.1
- Target: Jets WR1
New England: WR
- 1.3 WR TD/game — 3rd-most
- RB: 0.7
- TE: 0.2
- Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Las Vegas: EVERYTHING
- 1.0 RB TD/game
- 1.2 WR TD/game
- 0.9 TE TD/game — 3rd-most
- Targets: Seattle RBs | JSN | AJ Barner
Detroit: TE
- RB: 0.5
- WR: 0.8
- TE: 1.4 TD/game — MOST NFL
- Target: Hunter Henry
Kansas City: NOT WR
- WR: 0.3 TD/game — FEWEST NFL
- RB: 0.6
- TE: 0.6
- Avoid paying a premium for Atlanta WR touchdowns.
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Interesting Reads
1. Kenneth Walker III vs. Atlanta — MODEL + MATCHUP ATTACK
- 69.4% TD probability
- Fair -227
- Book -210
- +1.7% edge
- Atlanta allows 0.9 RB rushing TD/game — T-10th-most
- Chiefs implied for roughly 25.5 points.
One of the cleanest combinations of high probability, positive value and favorable game script.
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2. Hunter Henry vs. Detroit — PURE POSITIONAL ATTACK
- Detroit allows 1.4 TE TDs/game — MOST NFL
- Detroit's RB and WR TD rates are much lower.
- Henry's health needs monitoring, but the DvP is unmatched.
If his role returns closer to normal, this is the clearest TE touchdown matchup on the board.
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3. Quinshon Judkins vs. Houston — MODEL PRICE ATTACK
- 46.6% probability
- Fair +114
- Book +180
- +10.9% edge
- Houston allows 0.8 RB TD/game.
Not an elite DvP funnel, but the price is dramatically longer than the model's fair number.
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4. AJ Barner vs. Las Vegas — MODEL + POSITION ATTACK
- Vegas allows 0.9 TE TD/game — 3rd-most
- 35.4% model probability
- Fair +183
- Book +300
- +10.4% edge
One of my favorite combinations of positional weakness + plus-money model value.
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5. Kyren Williams vs. Arizona — MODEL + GAME SCRIPT ATTACK
- 58.9% TD probability
- Fair -143
- Book -130
- +2.4% edge
- Rams favored by nearly double digits.
The RB DvP itself is difficult, but role, expected game script and model price overcome much of that concern.
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6. Jonathan Taylor vs. Miami — MODEL VALUE
- 54.4% probability
- Fair -119
- Book -110
- +2.0% edge
- Miami allows only 0.5 RB TD/game.
This isn't a DvP play. It's a belief that Taylor's role is strong enough to beat a difficult positional matchup at a fair price.
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7. Derrick Henry vs. Chargers — ALIGNMENT PLAY
- 57.2% probability
- Fair -133
- Book -135
- Chargers allow 1.0 RB TD/game — T-7th-most
- Baltimore favored.
The model price is almost perfectly fair, and the matchup supports the play.
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8. Trey McBride vs. Rams — CONTRARIAN VALUE
- 39.9% probability
- Fair +150
- Book +275
- +13.2% edge
- BUT Rams allow only 0.1 TE TD/game.
A pure price-vs-matchup conflict. The model thinks the sportsbook has overcorrected for the difficult environment.
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9. Seattle TDs vs. Las Vegas — ATTACK MULTIPLE POSITIONS
Las Vegas allows:
- 1.0 RB TD/game
- 1.2 WR TD/game
- 0.9 TE TD/game
Model:
- AJ Barner +10.4%
- Emanuel Wilson +31.1%
- JSN has a strong matchup but -4.6% price edge
Vegas is one of the few defenses on the slate that can be attacked at all three skill positions.
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10. Panthers-Saints RBs — ATTACK THE POSITION
Both defenses allow:
- 1.4 RB rushing TDs/game — tied near the top of the NFL
Chuba is overpriced at -155 according to the model, so the key is finding the best price and identifying which Saints RB controls the premium touches.
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BEST RUSHING-TD DEFENSIVE MATCHUPS
1. Chuba Hubbard vs. NO: 1.4 RB TD/game allowed (**T-2nd-most**)
2. Saints lead RB vs. CAR: 1.4 (**T-2nd-most**)
3. Vikings lead RB vs. GB: 1.2 (**3rd-most**)
4. Christian McCaffrey vs. DAL: 1.0 (**T-7th-most**)
5. Derrick Henry vs. LAC: 1.0 (**T-7th-most**)
6. Kenneth Walker III vs. ATL: 0.9 (**T-10th-most**)
BEST WR TD MATCHUPS
1. Ravens WRs vs. LAC: 1.4 WR TD/game allowed (**T-2nd-most**)
2. Jets WRs vs. BUF: 1.4 (**T-2nd-most**)
3. Lions WRs vs. NE: 1.3 (**3rd-most**)
4. Rams WRs vs. ARI: 1.2 (**T-5th-most**)
5. Seahawks WRs vs. LV: 1.2 (**T-5th-most**)
6. Bills WRs vs. NYJ: 1.0/game
BEST TE TD MATCHUPS
1. Hunter Henry vs. DET: 1.4 TE TD/game allowed (**MOST NFL**)
2. AJ Barner vs. LV: 0.9 (**3rd-most**)
3. Tyler Warren vs. MIA: 0.8 (**T-6th-most**)
4. Greg Dulcich vs. IND: 0.8 (**T-6th-most**)
5. Tyler Higbee vs. ARI: 0.7 (**T-8th-most**)
6. Oronde Gadsden II vs. BAL: 0.7 (**T-8th-most**)
GOAL-LINE / ROLE PROFILES TO BUILD AROUND
- Jahmyr Gibbs — DET
- Kenneth Walker III — KC
- Christian McCaffrey — SF
- Javonte Williams — DAL
- James Cook — BUF
- Kyren Williams — LAR
- Derrick Henry — BAL
- Jonathan Taylor — IND
- Chuba Hubbard — CAR
- Quinshon Judkins — CLE
RECEIVING TD PROFILES THAT STAND OUT
- Hunter Henry — NE
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — DET
- AJ Barner — SEA
- Sam LaPorta — DET
- Tyler Warren — IND
- Greg Dulcich — MIA
- Trey McBride — ARI
- Matthew Golden — GB
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba — SEA
- Tyler Higbee — LAR
- Ravens WR1 — BAL
- Jets WR1 — NYJ
FINAL WEEK 10 TAKEAWAY
The strongest pure matchup angles this week are:
- Panthers-Saints RB touchdowns
- Minnesota RBs vs. Green Bay
- Hunter Henry vs. Detroit
- AJ Barner vs. Las Vegas
- Ravens RB/WR touchdowns vs. the Chargers
- Detroit WR touchdowns vs. New England
The strongest model-price opportunities are very different:
- Emanuel Wilson +31.1%
- Trey McBride +13.2%
- Quinshon Judkins +10.9%
- Ashton Jeanty +10.5%
- AJ Barner +10.4%
- Sam LaPorta +3.8%
- Kyren Williams +2.4%
- Jonathan Taylor +2.0%
- Kenneth Walker III +1.7%
And that remains the most useful distinction for the weekly primer:
DvP tells us where touchdowns have been going.
Role tells us who is most likely to benefit.
The MySpariEdge model tells us how often the player should score.
The sportsbook price tells us whether the bet is actually worth making.